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Appropriate market expectations, the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday (9 / 6) decided to hold interest rates at 1.25 percent level. And in accordance with market expectations as well, ECB governor Jean-Claude Trichet signaled that the ECB will raise interest rates at the next scheduled monetary policy meeting, in July.
However, precisely because that's in accordance with market expectations, the euro to strengthen space is limited. There is no element of surprise at the decision and the ECB statement this time, unlike what happened last March when a surprising Trichet indicated that rising interest rates. Euro even end up having closed lower against the dollar in late trading session Thursday.
Euro really had climbed higher after Trichet said shortly spells strong vigilance (extra vigilant.) The phrase is known as a way of ECB Trichet to express concerns about inflation and an indication that interest rates will rise in the near future. Only once, namely in September 2007, the use of the phrase strong vigilance is not followed by higher interest rates on the following months.
The main factor behind the weakening euro and inflation is the ECB's projection. The ECB predicted inflation would be in the range of 1.7 percent in 2012, lower than what analysts and economists predicted earlier. This fact lead to speculation that the pace of ECB rate hike may not be as fast as originally expected. With the projected decline in inflation pressures, could be the ECB will only raise interest rates once.
Without the expectation of rising interest rates the ECB after next July, the attention of market participants was again centered on the issue of debt crisis of the Euro Zone. Rating agency Fitch Ratings said it was difficult denied that Greece has no problem and will revise the rating to add Portuguese and Irish if Greece should restructure its debt.
Rather than resolved, the debt crisis feared the Euro zone will spread, infect other member states. Rising interest rates, in turn, will increasingly be assessed only add to the burden of member countries are problematic.
Against the dollar, the euro plummeted from the highest levels as low as 1.4650 to 1.4474 on trading session Thursday. At the end of the session, the euro was closed down almost 0.5 percent in the range of 1.4510 against the dollar.
Interest rate expectations factor also the reason the weakening pound yesterday.
As the ECB, the Bank of England (BoE) also decided to hold interest rates at the level of 0.50 percent, the lowest in the history of the founding of the BoE. The weak British economic data of late indicate that the recovery process is still hobbled, so that the BoE will probably hold interest rates at their lowest level for a longer period of time.
Traded in the range of 1.6367 pound sterling against the dollar at the end of the session, fell about nearly 0.2 percent from opening levels.
Dollar was also observed to strengthen against other major currencies like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. The strengthening dollar also helped by data showing the U.S. trade deficit shrank more than expected in April.
Yen closed lower 0.6 per cent in the range of 80.37 per dollar. Meanwhile, against the Swiss franc, the dollar also rose about 0.6 percent closed in the range of 0.8410.
In other trading, gold prices again rising to the highest reaches $ 1,549.20 per troy ounce on Thursday. Precious metals are considered more secure as a means of hedging this time. At the end of the trading session Thursday, spot gold prices close higher about 0.4 percent in the range of 1543.50 against the dollar. |